During 2006, sales of personal computers are not expected to exceed 234.5 million units, an increase of 10.7 percent over 2006. Gartner therefore estimates a reduction in growth rates in this sector, resulting in the end of the computer replacement cycle desktop peaked in 2005, an estimate shared by IDC.
In the past year, the consultants have been successively reviewing the forecasts for the sale of personal computers in the face of higher than expected growth in the various quarters. In total, Gartner’s figures show a growth of 15.5 percent compared to 2004, when analyzes at the beginning of the year pointed to much more conservative figures.
According to the consultant, during this year the segment of portable computers will also grow less than last year, being limited to 31.4 percent, a fact that associated with the slowdown in the replacement of computers desktop will affect the overall growth rate of the PC market.
The effect is most visible in mature markets, especially in the United States and Western Europe, where sales are expected to rise by 8.6 percent. To compensate, emerging markets are expected to post a 19.5 percent rise.
The figures advanced by IDC are similar to those of Gartner, with a forecast of 10.5 percent sales growth compared to 2005, driven by growth in the Asia Pacific region and emerging markets. The consultant also advances that in 2007 the values should remain at the same level as in 2006, suffering a positive influence from the entry of the new Microsoft operating system in the market.
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