Three of the top 10 personal computer manufacturers could be forced to leave the market in 2007, says Gartner. The estimate is made as a result of the slow growth and reduced profits that will be observed in the industry between 2006 and 2008.
The consultant does not identify the companies that will leave the market, but suggests that many of them are currently vulnerable. Dell is the only one that has made a profit in recent years, says Gartner.
Currently, Dell, HP and IBM respectively occupy the top three places in the manufacture of PCs in commercial units, while Fujitsu, Fujitsu-Siemens, Toshiba, NEC, Apple, Lenovo and Gateway rank in the top four to tenth place. .
Gartner predicts an increase, in number of units, of 11.3 percent and annual revenues of 14.7 percent between 2003 and 2005. But, despite being preceded by this period of double-digit growth, 2006 will present itself it becomes more difficult as demand slows down and competition between manufacturers increases, says the consultant.
Between 2006 and 2008, the average number of PCs sold and revenue growth will drop to 5.7 percent and two percent, respectively, Gartner predicts. The so-called emerging markets, such as China, will play a crucial role during this period, adding up to 60 percent of the expected growth, but this will not be enough to close the slowdown in demand in other parts of the world.
In view of the situation, the consultant considers several possible scenarios among the protagonists of the PC market, such as acquisitions or mergers, or the retreat to the regional markets that served as a starting point for the business. Gartner believes, for example, that IBM or HP is betting on spin off your PC business to focus on other areas.
Emerging markets, in turn, may serve as starting points for local manufacturers to reach the global market. Companies like China’s Lenovo are, according to Gartner, well positioned to grow their strong presence in that regional market, investing in a worldwide presence through the acquisition of rivals.
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