Game of Thrones arrives final stretch with the eighth season premiere last Sunday (14). The series is famous for the unexpected deaths of characters throughout the plot. With this in mind, a group of students from the Technical University of Munich (UTM) in Germany has devised an algorithm that predicts which characters will die next.
The technology combines information from previous seasons machine learning technique to indicate, with 64% accuracy, the life expectancy of people in the world of Game of Thrones.
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Eighth Game of Thrones season premiered on Sunday (14); algorithm reveals possible victims in the final stretch of the series Photo: Divulgao / HBO
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The project, called A Song of Ice and Data, applies techniques used in medical forecasting and life insurance calculations to the series universe. With the help of fan-supported Wikipedia, students scoured the lives of hundreds of characters, gathering information that could affect the life expectancy of some in the kingdom of Westeros.
If in real life this information may include issues such as hereditary diseases, physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking, in the world of Game of Thrones the most relevant information is to which family a particular character belongs, his gender, if he is married and who They are your allies.
Gathering these data revealed some truths about mortality and the universe of the series, such as the fact that being a man is more dangerous than being a woman: male characters have a mortality rate of 22%, compared to 11% of women. In addition, the family to which the character belongs can also increase or decrease their life expectancy. While the Baratheon, for example, have a 5% above average mortality, the Lannisters have a 45% higher chance of survival.
Based on these methods, the researchers concluded that the character most likely to survive Daenerys Targaryen, with only a 0.9% probability of dying. Next come Tyrion Lannister (2.5%), Varys (3.2%) and Samwell Tarly (3.3%).
At the other end of the ranking are Bronn and Gregor Clegane, with 93.5% and 80.3% chance of dying. To complete the list of probable victims of season eight, we have Sansa Stark (73.3%), Bran Stark (57.8%) and Sandor Clegane (47.5%). The curious who want to access the full ranking can find it on the project website (got.show).
It is noteworthy, however, that the final stretch of Game of Thrones has just begun, and that we cannot be sure about any prediction, even if it is based on algorithms. Throughout his seasons, the series based on George R. R. Martin's work proved that unpredictability is part of the script.
Via A Song of Ice and Data and The Verge