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Apple’s Mac business may decline for the first time since 2003

Mac Sales

Analysts estimate that Apple reveals that it sold 2.1 to 2.2 million Macs in its last fiscal quarter, ended March 31, 2009. If that is true, the result represents a 4-9% drop in Apple’s first year-over-year sales since June 2003, Silicon Alley Insider.

Mac Sales

Reporter Dan Frommer notes that Apple’s Mac business is fairly cyclical and independent of the general PC market. When Apple migrated from IBM to Intel CPUs, Mac sales plummeted from late 2005 to early 2006. In addition, models that take time to update also negatively impact sales.

It remains to be seen whether the new iMacs, Macs mini, Macs Pro (and even the Xserve) have helped Apple exceed expectations of analysts, who may at least remain neutral in relation to 2008. We will know this Wednesday; meanwhile, we are cheering.