algorithm ‘predicts’ who dies in season 8

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Game of Thrones reaches the final stretch with the debut of the eighth season last Sunday (14). The series is famous for the unexpected deaths of characters throughout the plot. With that in mind, a group of students from the Technical University of Munich (UTM), Germany, created an algorithm that predicts who will be the next characters to die.

The technology combines information from previous seasons to the machine learning technique in order to indicate, with 64% accuracy, the life expectancy of people in the world of Game of Thrones.

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1 of 1 Eighth season of Game of Thrones premiered on Sunday (14); algorithm reveals possible victims in the final stretch of the series – Photo: Disclosure / HBO

Eighth season of Game of Thrones premiered on Sunday (14); algorithm reveals possible victims in the final stretch of the series – Photo: Disclosure / HBO

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The project, called “A Song of Ice and Data”, applies techniques used in medical forecasts and life insurance calculations to the universe of the series. With the help of Wikipedias maintained by fans, students searched the lives of hundreds of characters, gathering information that could affect the life expectancy of someone in the kingdom of Westeros.

If in real life this information may include issues such as hereditary diseases, physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking, in the world of Game of Thrones the most relevant information is to which family a particular character belongs, his gender, if he is married And who are your allies.

The gathering of these data revealed some truths about mortality and the universe of the series, such as the fact that being a man is more dangerous than being a woman: male characters have a mortality rate of 22%, compared to 11% of women. In addition, the family to which the character belongs is also able to increase or decrease his life expectancy. While Baratheon, for example, have a 5% above average mortality, Lannisters have a 45% greater chance of survival.

Based on these methods, the researchers concluded that the character with the greatest chance of survival is Daenerys Targaryen, with only a 0.9% probability of dying. Next come Tyrion Lannister (2.5%), Varys (3.2%) and Samwell Tarly (3.3%).

At the other end of the ranking are Bronn and Gregor Clegane, with 93.5% and an 80.3% chance of dying. To complete the list of probable victims of the eighth season, we have Sansa Stark (73.3%), Bran Stark (57.8%) and Sandor Clegane (47.5%). Those curious who want to access the full ranking can find it on the project website (

It is worth mentioning, however, that the final stretch of Game of Thrones has just begun, and that it is not possible to be sure about any prediction, even if it is based on algorithms. Throughout its seasons, the series based on the work of George RR Martin proved that unpredictability is part of the script.

Via A Song of Ice and Data and The Verge