First, last week, it was the confusion generated by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, from KGI Securites, who initially released a note to investors implying that “the iPhone X will be canceled by Apple”. Then he corrected himself, but obviously the first call was much more interesting for pageviews and it was the only one that many sites / blogs preferred to publish.
Then, in the last two days, information came from Asian sources about a supposed “50% cut” in iPhone X production for this quarter, from 40 to 20 million units. a failure.
All of this, of course, greatly affected Apple's shares. Here is the graph of $ AAPL for the last week:
But if you are in the exact area, you know that mathematics is our friend. AND Ryan Jones, developer of the beautiful Weather Line app, analyzed all of these numbers in such a simple way that it makes you laugh at those who call themselves "Wall Street analysts".
Here are the tweets:
Weak iPhone X demand:
WSJ says iPhone X Q2 cut was from 40M planned to 20M.
History: Q2 sales for the last two years were 51.1M and 50.8M. So 40M seems idiotic for just iPhone X.
80% of sales (40M) for the most expensive iPhone? No way.40% of sales (20M)? Sounds bout right.
– Ryan Jones (@rjonesy) January 30, 2018
Let's just use our brains… iPhone X is probably 33-50% of all iPhone sales.
Recent Q2 sales were 61M, 51M, 50M.
If Apple forecasted 40M iPhone X, that would be 65-80% of sales to the highest end model. In Q2
20M would be 33-40% iPhone X.
Yep. Sounds bout right.
– Ryan Jones (@rjonesy) January 30, 2018
Putting it on kids: the supposed projection of 20 million iPhones X refers to the current quarter, from January to March, which represents sales for Apple's second fiscal quarter.
Let's take, then, the recent history of iPhones sold in the same period:
- FQ2 2017: 50.8 million
- FQ2 2016: 51.2 million
- FQ2 2015: 61.2 million
- FQ2 2014: 43.7 million
Average: 51.7 million.
The "reports" of the last days clearly indicated that Apple's original goal would be to sell 40 million iPhones X this quarter. In other words, they claim that, at some point in their strategic planning, Apple thought that the iPhone X would represent almost 80% of the sales of iPhones in the period.
It makes absolutely no sense.
Taking exactly the “updated” number, we have that 20 million iPhones X would, therefore, represent something between 35% to 40% of the total sales of iPhones in the quarter. Something much, but much more plausible for the company's top-of-the-line model, which for the first time in history starts at $ 1,000.
Another good memory of John Gruber, from Daring Fireball:
These bullshit reports of Apple reducing production of new iPhones happen every January. Same thing will happen in a year, guaranteed. https://t.co/eT9Hy3Ado8
– John Gruber (@gruber) January 30, 2018
Yes, what happened in the last few days is nothing new for Apple but the people have a short memory. Every year, at the same times, similar stories appear pointing to a crisis in sales and supposed errors in projections normally always directed to the iPhone. Not for less: he, for a long time, the hen that laid the golden eggs for Apple.
Another recurrence, in rumors like:
I dont know but I do know that orders for production are made some time before the quarter begins not one third of the way through the quarter.
– Horace Dediu (@asymco) January 30, 2018
As analyst Horace Dediu pointed out, if there is one thing that is certain about this whole story, the iPhones X production target for this quarter, whatever it was, was set by Apple well before the beginning of the quarter itself. Not now, a third of it has passed.
The summary of the whole story that, once again, we are seeing "analysts" and "Asian sources" spewing nonsense. If Apple really sells around 20 million iPhones X in its second fiscal quarter of 2018, that is exactly within its plan and its expectations.
And if anyone thinks bill more than $ 20 billion in a quarter (20 million times US $ 1,000, it contained gross) with a single device signaling failure and some indication that the project should be “canceled” (that was hilarious, go!), something tells me that this person needs to review a little bit market concepts. IPhone X is doing great, thanks.
S remembering: tomorrow (February 1), at the end of the day, Apple will release its financial results for the first fiscal quarter of 2018. Stay tuned.