After being one of the first to confirm the drop in sales of the new iPhones (mainly the XR model), the esteemed analyst at TF International Securities, Ming-Chi Kuo, released a new report in which it states that "the worst is about to end" and predicts that sales from March will be greater than the market consensus.
With Apple's first fiscal quarter revenue review letter, several companies have reduced their iPhone sales estimates this year to 160 million units; a value much lower than that released by Kuo, last December, of 190 million devices. In the most recent report, the analyst maintained his previous forecast and suggests that this year around 188 to 192 million devices.
Kuo also said that generally the stock prices of Apple and most iPhone suppliers are ?negatively priced?, which further reduces sales expectations for the gadget. Despite this, he lowered his estimate of iPhones sold in the first quarter of this year from 38-42 million to 36-38 million devices, mainly because "demand for new models in China and in emerging markets was less than expected".
As we said, the analyst pointed out that sales from March will be better for Ma. More precisely, he estimated that the sale of iPhones in the second quarter will reach 37 million devices, slightly above market consensus, which varies between 30 to 35 million units. Although this forecast is more positive than the previous one, it represents a 14% drop in sales when compared to the same period in 2018, on the other hand, less than the estimated 29% drop.
Finally, Kuo ensured that Apple will not have to worry about the ghosts of last year (if the US-China trade war does not get worse), suggesting an increase in sales of the next generation of iPhone guided primarily by the program trade-in Apple, gains in European market share and strong replacement demand.
In the letter to investors, Ma CEO Tim Cook has already announced that the company expects revenue of $ 84 billion in the first fiscal quarter of 2019, below the original $ 89-93 billion range. In addition, Apple will no longer disclose the numbers of devices sold with its tax results; we will see what the real numbers of this turbulent period will be for the Cupertino giant tomorrow (1/29).