Unsurprisingly, as technologies advance and smartphones become more refined, the exchange cycle also expands to no longer justify, after all, to replace a two-year-old handset when it is still perfectly functional and capable. For Apple, however, this cycle may be expanding in ways that could be detrimental to Apple's finances in the future.
According to Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, the average iPhone exchange cycle reached, in 2019, the record high of four years. This: Whoever buys a smartphone from Apple this year will take, on average, four years to exchange it for a new one. In 2016, this average was two years; By 2018, she had already risen back, and the tendency for her to rise further over time soon, could be 4.5 years.
The analyst believes that by 2019, only 16% of the world's active iPhones base will be replaced by new handsets. The main reasons for this are the low-priced battery exchange program (which ended late last year), the end of operator subsidies and, of course, the rising average price of iPhones.
To make the future even more uncertain for Apple, Sacconaghi also predicts that the 2019 iPhone models will not bring enough news to lure consumers to an early-term exchange. As a result, sales of Ma's smartphones could continue to decline until mid-2020, according to the analyst.
This, of course, is bad for Apple and perhaps in more ways than the obvious. As well as being a shake-up in finance, as it is Ma's most popular product, the drop in iPhone sales may also undermine the company's ambition in its future flagship segment. services. Cupertino, after all, (almost) always harnesses his digital products (iCloud, iMessage, App Store, Apple Pay and the upcoming streaming video) to your physical products and, with fewer physical products, fewer people will enter your ecosystem.
There is no doubt how Ma handles this problem. So far, the company's move has simply been to throw the prices of iPhones high, possibly to compensate for the slowdown in the strategy cycle that, as everyone has seen, has not worked out. Whether the company will persist in this path or take another direction, only time will tell.